Climate change and its impact on major crops in Gujarat

Abstract

The projected climatic data (2071 to 2100) as downscaled by PRECIS model for different stations (Anand, Vadodara, Junagadh, Bhavanagar, Bhuj, Rajkot and Kesod) of Gujarat were analysed for climate change impact study on different crops. Results indicated that the annual rainfall during projected period would be 15 to 101 per cent higher than the base line rainfall (1961-90). Maximum temperature would increase by 2.8 to 7.7 0C, while minimum temperature would increase by 3.8 to 5.2 0C in different parts of Gujarat. The impact of climate change on different crops (wheat, maize, pearl millet, paddy and groundnut) of Gujarat was studied using InfoCrop and DSSAT models. The results indicated that climate change will adversely affect the yields of different crops. The maximum yield reduction (-61 %) is projected in wheat and lowest in pearl millet (-<8%). Maize during kharif season would be more affected (-47 %) than the rabi season (-10 %). Similarly pearl millet in summer season will be least affected (-8%) than kharif season (-14 %).

Keywords

• Climate change
• trend analysis
• base line
• PRECIS
• projected climate