Study of Long-Term Energy Storage System Capacity Configuration Based on Improved Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract

Distributed generation equipment improves renewable energy utilization and economic benefits through an energy storage system (ESS). However, dominated by short-term data, the configuration of long-period ESS capacity is absent based on the dynamic change of load, which leads to a large deviation from the expected return. Considering the system characteristics of lack of data and less information, after introducing the grey theory, we propose a new long-term capacity configuration method for ESS and establish the long-term grey forecasting model (GFM) of user load, improving the basic forecasting model to improve the accuracy of the long-term forecasting model. Then, the scheduling model is established with the maximum economic and social benefits as the optimization objective. Based on the forecast data of the improved grey forecasting model (IGFM), the hierarchical solution method is used to solve the scheduling model. Finally, the parameters are configured based on the service life of the equipment and the expected rate of return. The simulation results show that higher accuracy is realized in the improved prediction model, and the improved algorithm gets higher convergence speed and precision. Apart from that, the nonlinear correlation trend of the EES return rate between the capacity and life cycle is revealed. Compared with the ESS configuration in a short period, this study provides more comprehensive and accurate data support for the capacity configuration of the ESS, reducing the error between the actual return and the expected return significantly.

Keywords

• Capacity configuration
• energy storage system
• grey theory
• hierarchical optimization
• scheduling