Redai dili (Mar 2022)
The Target Price Subsidy Policy and Its Sensitivity in the Main Rubber Producing Areas in China Based on an Evolutionary Game: A Case Study of Xishuangbanna
Abstract
At present, rubber income is insufficient to encourage farmers to continue to plant rubber. Rubber farmers' forced cutting, abandonment, and malicious destruction of rubber trees have destroyed a large number of rubber forests, causing rubber production to drop sharply; natural rubber incentive policies such as seedling subsidies have not been effective in addressing this. If short-term policies remain weak, it is very likely that rubber production will reach a crisis in the next five to eight years. Policies are thus needed to ensure the safety of the national rubber strategy and to formulate the target subsidy price for natural rubber scientifically, as well as to slow down the rate of labor transfer from the rubber industry to other industries, while gaining trial time for the application and promotion of new technologies. Based on 947 pieces of cross-sectional data and regional statistical bulletins of 18 sample villages in Xishuangbanna in 2019, this study analyzes the validity boundary of the target price subsidy policy using an evolutionary game model and investigates the sensitivity of factors that affect the target price subsidy policy. 1) This study tests the effectiveness of the target price subsidy policy by establishing an evolutionary game model of "subsidy policy-farmer behavior." When the subsidy amount is less than 4.8, there is no evolutionary stable point in the game system, based on the 2019 data. Thus, the target price should be 12.8 yuan/kg when the rubber price is 8 yuan/kg, and farmers will then be expected to fully adopt the strategy of planting rubber. This target price can stabilize the expectations of farmers in rubber production areas and restrain farmers from reducing the scale of rubber planting. Based on this preliminary estimate, the unit cost of the target price subsidy policy is 5,400 yuan/(hm2·a-1), and Xishuangbanna thus needs about 1,485 million yuan/a to maintain the target of 275,000 hm2. 2) A single factor analysis method is adopted to calculate the sensitivity coefficient. Through the sensitivity analysis of the four factors of per capita disposable income of rural residents, rubber tree yield, planting cost, and dry rubber price in the game model, it is found that the corresponding financial subsidy cost will also decrease when the rubber price rises. Among the four factors that affect the target subsidy price, the sensitivity coefficient of the rubber tree yield is the largest, constituting a sensitive factor. When the planting cost and dry rubber price remain unchanged, as the yield of rubber trees increases from 2.5 kg to 2.75 kg, the target subsidy price amount drops from 5.7 yuan/kg to 4.4 yuan/kg, and the subsidy amount drops by 22.81%. The promotion of the target price subsidy policy may lead to greater financial pressure, thus, increasing the yield of rubber trees is a necessary coordinated measure.,and the natural rubber futures price insurance project will also help reduce fiscal costs while achieving policy goals. This study answers the question of how to determine the target subsidy price of natural rubber scientifically, and provides a basis for decision-making and significant guidelines for formulating scientific and effective rubber industry incentive policies.
Keywords
