Adaptive Forecasting of Nuclear Power Plant Operational Status Under Sensor Concept Drift Using a Bridging Distribution Adaptive Network

Abstract

A large number of sensors are required to collect information during the operation of nuclear power plants to ensure their absolutely safe operation. However, because of the unique nature of nuclear reactions, the physical environment of nuclear power production is prone to changes, leading to concept drift in the data collected by the sensors. Concept drift describes the phenomenon of sample distribution changing over time, which typically negatively impacts the model’s training and inference processes. We found that nongradual distribution changes could be guided by generating transitional intermediary distributions within the distribution, thereby achieving a gradual change process. Based on this, we designed a bridging distribution adaptive network (BDAN), which consisted of identical-depth TDoA (time difference of arrival) homomorphic backbone neural networks on both sides with a latent adaptive bridging module in the middle. By calculating the distribution differences over multiple timesteps, a series of bridge distributions were generated to guide the gradients in the latent space, updating the parameters of the latent adaptive guiding module in a directional manner and enabling the model to perceive nongradual distribution changes in the time domain. Experimental results showed that the BDAN outperformed the previous state-of-the-art benchmark methods by 5.6% in terms of mean squared error in the nuclear power data prediction task under concept drift, achieving the best fault prediction performance.

Keywords

• nuclear power operation
• sensors
• adaptive bridge distribution
• concept drift