Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological factors in abating the spread of COVID-19 in Africa

Abstract

In Asia, Europe and South America, the role of atmospheric condition in aiding or abating the growth curve of COVID-19 has been analysed. However, no study to date has examined such climatic extensions for the growth or otherwise of the novel coronavirus in Africa. Africa, with a mostly relatively warmer temperature differs from other regions of the world and in addition, has recorded far fewer cases compared to Asian, Europeans and the Americans (North and South). It then becomes imperative to examine the influence of meteorological indices in the growth or otherwise of coronavirus diseases in Africa to establish whether findings on the climatic conditions-COVID-19 growth are regionally specific. In this study, we examined the influence of meteorological factors for aiding or abating the spread of the aerosolised pathogen of COVID-19 in Africa. We rely on the generalised additive model (GAM) and found wind speed to positively relate to COVID-19 growth while mean temperature and relative humidity to inversely relates to COVID-19 growth curve in Africa. We accounted for potential cofounders in the core GAM model and discuss policy implications.

Keywords

• Climatology
• Environmental analysis
• Environmental economics
• Environmental health
• Environmental impact assessment
• Mean temperature