A nomogram for determining the disease-specific survival in Ewing sarcoma: a population study

Abstract

Abstract Background We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the disease-specific survival of Ewing sarcoma (ES) patients. Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database was used to identify ES from 1990 to 2015, in which the data was extracted from 18 registries in the US. Multivariate analysis performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models was performed on the training set to identify independent prognostic factors and construct a nomogram for the prediction of the 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates of patients with ES. The predictive values were compared by using concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration plots, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 2,643 patients were identified. After multivariate Cox regression, a nomogram was established based on a new model containing the predictive variables of age, race, extent of disease, tumor size, and therapy of surgery. The new model provided better C-indexes (0.684 and 0.704 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively) than the model without therapy of surgery (0.661 and 0.668 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively). The good discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were demonstrated for both the training and validation cohorts. NRI and IDI were also improved. Finally, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusion We developed a reliable nomogram for determining the prognosis and treatment outcomes of patients with ES in the US. However, the proposed nomogram still requires external data verification in future applications, especially for regions outside the US.

Keywords

• Nomogram
• SEER
• Disease-specific survival rate
• Ewing sarcoma