Baltic Journal of Economic Studies (Dec 2020)
FOREIGN CURRENCY REFINANCING AS A NEW ELEMENT OF STIMULATING THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES
Abstract
Transition economies require finding and implementing new elements to stimulate their development, especially with regard to the economic systems of the former Soviet countries (Ukraine and Belarus). Under these conditions, it is important to use the experience of other transition economies, which includes the use of foreign currency refinancing. Purpose. Substantiation of the introduction of foreign currency refinancing as a new element of stimulating the economic development of transition economies through assessment of the development of the mentioned economies in Belarus and Ukraine. Design/methodology/approach. The study employed a quantitative analysis of statistical data to assess the development of transit economies in Ukraine and Belarus over the 21-year period. Correlation and regression analysis was also involved to identify key areas of impact of foreign currency refinancing on transitive economic systems. In this case, it was proposed to use five regression functions (linear; exponential; polynomial; logarithmic; power). It was separately proposed to determine the correlation ratio between the key areas of impact of foreign currency refinancing on the transition economy and the volume of foreign exchange refinancing using three methods: the determination factor; checking the correlation coefficient on the Chaddock’s scale; comparison of the correlation coefficient with the critical correlation coefficient. Findings. The article analyses the development of the transition economies of Ukraine and Belarus over the 21-year period (from 1999 to 2019) and emphasises that since 2008 the development of economic systems of the countries selected for the study has almost stopped despite activities (tools) used to stimulate the growth of national economies. The authors prove the importance of finding and using new elements to stimulate the economic development of the economies of Belarus and Ukraine. The use of foreign currency refinancing as a new element of stimulating the development of economic systems of Ukraine and Belarus is justified. The mechanism, beneficial and negative impacts of the use of foreign currency refinancing for transition economies selected for the study are identified. The key areas of influence of foreign currency refinancing on the economic systems of Belarus and Ukraine are identified, where the size of lending; revenues of budgets of different levels, business entities, households are the main ones. At the same time, the authors managed to refute the possibility of a significant negative impact of currency refinancing on the growth of the monetary base, inflation and devaluation processes in the countries selected for the study. Practical implications: the conducted research is important for ensuring the long-term development of transition economies, primarily in Ukraine and Belarus. Originality/value: the study will allow to identify key areas of impact of foreign currency refinancing on transitive economic systems, and revealing its beneficial and negative impacts for economies of this type on the example of Ukraine and Belarus.
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