Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

Abstract

Yufeng Wang,1,2,* Xueying Huang,1,* Suru Yue,1 Jie Liu,1 Shasha Li,1 Huan Ma,1 Liren Hu,1 Jiayuan Wu1,2 1Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, 524001, People’s Republic of China; 2Collaborative Innovation Engineering Technology Research Center of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong Province, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, 524001, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Jiayuan Wu Email [email protected]: Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individual and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing the trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear.Methods: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and the relative risk were calculated using the joinpoint regression model and the age–period–cohort model, respectively.Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. Age effects exerted the most significant impact on migraine incidence. Period effects showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of cohort effects, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the incidence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts.Conclusion: Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.Keywords: migraine, incidence, secular trend, joinpoint regression analysis, age–period–cohort model

Keywords

• migraine
• incidence
• secular trend
• joinpoint regression analysis
• age–period–cohort model