Study on prior information fusion method of low-voltage switchgear

Abstract

The reliability analysis of low-voltage switchgear is of great importance to the safety of power system. Bayes theory is a widely used reliability evaluation method because it can make full use of historical data. Therefore, the reliable prior information is the key factor to ensure the correctness of the reliability analysis results when the Bayes method is used to evaluate the reliability of the low-voltage switchgear. In order to obtain the priori information of low-voltage switchgear with high reliability, a feasible prior information fusion method was proposed and a reliable prior distribution function was obtained. First, kinds of historical data and effective information were collected from manufacturers and users. Then, to get more accurate prior distribution, the parametric and nonparametric test method was used to test the compatibility of the collected historical data, the effective information and the field information. Finally, the prior distribution and the expert experience were fused, and the conjugate prior distribution of the reliable low-voltage switchgear was constructed, which provided the theoretical basis for improving the accuracy of reliability evaluation of the low-voltage switchgear.