The symmetric and asymmetric effects of climate change on rice productivity in Malaysia

Abstract

The current study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of climate change (CC) on rice productivity (RP) in Malaysia. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models were employed in this study. Time series data from 1980 to 2019 were collected from the World Bank and the Department of Statistics, Malaysia. The estimated results are also validated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR). The findings of symmetric ARDL show that rainfall and cultivated area have significant and advantageous effects on rice output. The NARDL-bound test outcomes display that climate change has an asymmetrical long-run impact on rice productivity. Climate change has had varying degrees of positive and negative impacts on rice productivity in Malaysia. Positive changes in temperature and rainfall have a substantial and destructive impact on RP. At the same time, negative variations in temperature and rainfall have a substantial and positive impact on rice production in the Malaysian agriculture sector. Changes in cultivated areas, both positive and negative, have a long-term optimistic impact on rice output. Additionally, we discovered that only temperature affects rice output in both directions. Malaysian policymakers must understand the symmetric and asymmetric effects of CC on RP and agricultural policies that will promote sustainable agricultural development and food security.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Rice productivity
• Cultivated area
• Malaysia
• NARDL