Incidence and predictor of diabetic foot ulcer and its association with change in fasting blood sugar among diabetes mellitus patients at referral hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia, 2021

Abstract

Background Diabetes mellitus is one of the global public health problems and fasting blood sugar is an important indicator of diabetes management. Uncontrolled diabetes can lead to diabetic foot ulcers, which is a common and disabling complication. The association between fasting blood glucose level and the incidence of diabetic foot ulcers is rarely considered, and knowing its predictors is good for clinical decision-making. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the incidence and predictors of diabetic foot ulcers and its association with changes in fasting blood sugar among diabetes mellitus patients at referral hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia. Methods A multicenter retrospective follow-up study was conducted at a referral hospital in Northwest Ethiopia. A total of 539 newly diagnosed DM patients who had follow-up from 2010 to 2020 were selected using a computer-generated simple random sampling technique. Data was entered using Epi-Data 4.6 and analyzed in R software version 4.1. A Cox proportional hazard with a linear mixed effect model was jointly modeled and 95% Cl was used to select significant variables. AIC and BIC were used for model comparison. Result A total of 539 diabetes patients were followed for a total of 28727.53 person-month observations. Overall, 65 (12.1%) patients developed diabetic foot ulcers with incidence rate of 2.26/1000-person month observation with a 95% CI of [1.77, 2.88]. Being rural (AHR = 2.30, 95%CI: [1.23, 4.29]), being a DM patient with Diabetic Neuropathy (AHR = 2.61, 95%CI: [1.12, 6.06]), and having peripheral arterial disease(PAD) (AHR = 2.96, 95%CI: [1.37, 6.40]) were significant predictors of DFU. The time-dependent lagged value of fasting blood sugar change was significantly associated to the incident of DFU (α = 1.85, AHR = 6.35, 95%CI [2.40, 16.79]). Conclusion and recommendation In this study, the incidence of DFU was higher than in previous studies and was influenced by multiple factors like rural residence, having neuropathy, and PAD were significant predictors of the incidence of DFU. In addition, longitudinal changes in fasting blood sugar were associated with an increased risk of DFU. Health professionals and DM patients should give greater attention to the identified risk factors for DFU were recommended.