Evolution and Drivers of Production Patterns of Major Crops in Jilin Province, China

Abstract

Exploring the evolution of the production patterns of major crops and their driving factors can provide new ideas to ensure the security of supply of important agricultural products. This study selected four major crop types in Jilin Province—grain, oil crop, vegetable, and fruit—as research subjects. Using the center of gravity migration model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and comparative advantage index, the spatial and temporal evolution of these crops’ production patterns from 2000 to 2020 was examined. A geographically weighted regression model was employed to analyze driving factors. The results showed that the planting area of grain was the most extensive; the percentage of production of grain, oil crop, and fruit increased to different degrees; the unit area yield of the four crops increased. The centers of gravity of all four crops’ productions were located in the central-northwestern region of Jilin Province. The global Moran’s I was positive for all four crops’ productions. The comparative advantage characteristics of the four crops were closely related to the natural geographical environment. Grain, vegetable, and fruit production were significantly and positively correlated with fertilizer application, and the most significant factor affecting oil crop production was land input intensity.

Keywords

• crop types
• production patterns
• comparative advantage
• driving factors
• geographically weighted regression model
• Jilin province