Forecasting Construction Cost Indices: Methods, Trends, and Influential Factors

Abstract

The Construction Cost Index (CCI) is an important tool that is widely used in construction cost management to monitor cost fluctuations over time. Numerous studies have been conducted on CCI development and forecasting models, including time series, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and hybrid models. Therefore, this study seeks to reveal the complexity of CCI forecasting and identify the leading indicators, trends, and techniques for CCI prediction. A bibliometric analysis was conducted to explore the landscape in the CCI literature, focusing on co-occurrence, co-authorship, and citation analysis. These analyses revealed the frequent keywords, the most cited authors and documents, and the most productive countries. The research topics and clusters in the CCI forecasting process were presented, and directions for future research were suggested to enhance the prediction models. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the practical application of a forecasting model to validate its prediction reliability. Furthermore, this study emphasizes the need to integrate advanced technologies and sustainable practices into future CCI forecasting models. The findings are useful in enhancing the knowledge of CCI prediction techniques and serve as a base for future research in construction cost estimation.

Keywords

• construction cost index
• forecasting
• construction inflation
• construction supply chain disruptions
• CCI leading indicators
• CCI macroeconomics