Risk factors for central venous catheter-associated deep venous thrombosis in pediatric critical care settings identified by fusion model

Abstract

Abstract Background An increase in the incidence of central venous catheter (CVC)-related thrombosis (CRT) has been reported in pediatric intensive care patients over the past decade. Risk factors for the development of CRT are not well understood, especially in children. The study objective was to identify potential clinical risk factors associated with CRT with novel fusion machine learning models. Methods Patients aged 0–18 who were admitted to intensive care units from December 2015 to December 2018 and underwent at least one CVC placement were included. Two fusion model approaches (stacking and blending) were used to build a better performance model based on three widely used machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest and gradient boosting decision tree). High-impact risk factors were identified based on their contribution in both fusion artificial intelligence models. Results A total of 478 factors of 3871 patients and 3927 lines were used to build fusion models, one of which achieved quite satisfactory performance (AUC = 0.82, recall = 0.85, accuracy = 0.65) in 5-fold cross validation. A total of 11 risk factors were identified based on their independent contributions to the two fusion models. Some risk factors, such as D-dimer, thrombin time, blood acid-base balance-related factors, dehydrating agents, lymphocytes and basophils were identified or confirmed to play an important role in CRT in children. Conclusions The fusion model, which achieves better performance in CRT prediction, can better understand the risk factors for CRT and provide potential biomarkers and measures for thromboprophylaxis in pediatric intensive care settings.

Keywords

• Central venous catheter
• Deep venous thrombosis
• Pediatric critical care
• Machine learning
• Risk factors