Challenges of the Knowledge Society (Apr 2011)
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON VOTE-POPULARITY FUNCTION FOR ROMANIA
Abstract
The regional analysis in Romania confirms the hypothesis of a significant correlation between the status of the economy and political behaviour of the electors. The level and the dynamic of the unemployment at regional level have an influence on vote behaviour, as stated by the partisan political business cycle theory: in the areas with a higher unemployment rate there is a voting preference (tendency) towards the political left wing. This conclusion is interesting for a political perspective. If the unemployment electors carry their votes toward left, the left wing government in office between 1992-1996 and 2000-2004 promotes an economic policy that outcomes in a diminishing the electoral support for this party: during these periods, the global unemployment rate decreased from 8.2% to 6.6% in first period (1992-1996) and from 12.3% to 6.3% in the second. Moreover, the partisan electoral behaviour hypothesis affirms that the private entrepreneurs and the self-employed vote toward right-wing parties. That means that electoral support for left party in office during the mentioned periods was also reduced by another result of the reform, namely the strong increase in the number of registered companies (large numbers of them are limited liability companies). A political analogous situation was recorded during the 1996-2000 legislatures. The global unemployment rate increased and the business environment became unfavourable, leading to a decrease of the electoral support for the right-wing governmental coalition in office.In Romania, regarding the elections from 2008-2009, a new electoral law was introduced. The main changes concerned the election of chairpersons of county councils by uninominal voting, separating general and presidential elections and the introduction uninominal voting system for parliamentary elections, with a correction of the total number of seats with the total number of votes obtained by each party on national level.
