COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations

Abstract

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to [Formula: see text]. The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• vaccinations
• mathematical modelling
• parameter estimation
• sensitivity analysis
• bifurcation analysis