Assessing Earthquake Forecasting Performance Based on Annual Mobile Geomagnetic Observations in Southwest China

Abstract

There have been reports about anomalies in mobile geomagnetic data before earthquakes; however, whether it can be used as an indicator for identifying potential earthquake areas was not be explored. In this study, we propose two parameters for earthquake forecasting based on annual mobile geomagnetic observation data. The spatial horizontal and three components’ changes are calculated in each year and then used to forecast moderate–large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in southwest China in the subsequent period. It is found that earthquakes are more likely to occur in low H- or F-value regions. We statistically assess their forecasting performance by using Molchan’s error diagram, and the results indicate that there is considerable precursory information in the spatial H and F values. It is concluded that mobile geomagnetic observations might be useful in middle-term earthquake forecasts in the study area. We discuss the physical mechanisms of H and F values to explain their reasonability. The methodology proposed in this study could be helpful in finding out the optimal solution for annual mobile geomagnetic measurements for middle-term earthquake forecasting.

Keywords

• mobile geomagnetic observation
• earthquake forecasting performance
• Molchan’s error diagram
• southwest China