Application of Machine Learning for Simulation of Air Temperature at Dome A

Abstract

Dome A is the summit of the Antarctic plateau, where the Chinese Kunlun inland station is located. Due to its unique location and high altitude, Dome A provides an important observatory site in analyzing global climate change. However, before the arrival of the Chinese Antarctic expedition in 2005, near-surface air temperatures had not been recorded in the region. In this study, we used meteorological parameters, such as ice surface temperature, radiation, wind speed, and cloud type, to build a reliable model for air temperature estimation. Three models (linear regression, random forest, and deep neural network) were developed based on various input datasets: seasonal factors, skin temperature, shortwave radiation, cloud type, longwave radiation from AVHRR-X products, and wind speed from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. In situ air temperatures from 2010 to 2015 were used for training, while 2005–2009 and 2016–2020 measurements were used for model validation. The results showed that random forest and deep neural network outperformed the linear regression model. In both methods, the 2005–2009 estimates (average bias = 0.86 °C and 1 °C) were more accurate than the 2016–2020 values (average bias = 1.04 °C and 1.26 °C). We conclude that the air temperature at Dome A can be accurately estimated (with an average bias less than 1.3 °C and RMSE around 3 °C) from meteorological parameters using random forest or a deep neural network.

Keywords

• Dome A
• air temperature
• skin temperature
• linear regression
• random forest model
• deep learning