A SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHILDBEARING COEFFICIENT IN THE ALTAI REGION BASED ON METHOD OF FUZZY LINEAR REGRESSION

Abstract

Purpose. Construction of a mathematical model of the dynamics of childbearing change in the Altai region in 2000–2016, analysis of the dynamics of changes in birth rates for multiple age categories of women of childbearing age. Methodology. A auxiliary analysis element is the construction of linear mathematical models of the dynamics of childbearing by using fuzzy linear regression method based on fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy linear regression is considered as an alternative to standard statistical linear regression for short time series and unknown distribution law. The parameters of fuzzy linear and standard statistical regressions for childbearing time series were defined with using the built in language MatLab algorithm. Method of fuzzy linear regression is not used in sociological researches yet. Results. There are made the conclusions about the socio-demographic changes in society, the high efficiency of the demographic policy of the leadership of the region and the country, and the applicability of the method of fuzzy linear regression for sociological analysis.

Keywords

• демография
• коэффициент рождаемости
• временной ряд
• нечеткое число
• нечеткий временной ряд
• нечеткая линейная регрессия
• социологическое прогнозирование