CONSTRUCTION OF AGGREGATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC MODEL WITH DETAILED REPRESENTATION OF THE FOREST COMPLEX

Abstract

Autonomy of the industrial forecasts often exacerbated by the lack of direct connection with the economic forecasts on the macro level. On the other hand it is desirable to simulate the industrial strategy in a fairly high degree of isolation, so that it does not depend at every moment on description of other activities or levels of hierarchy. To study the effects of national economic relations on the development of industrial complex we propose to use a spatial model of the national economy, which describes modalities of the researched industries in more detail. Quantitative parameters, obtained using basic Interregional Cross-sectoral Optimization Model (OMMM) against the external development of the industrial complex, are used to form an aggregated model with a detailed representation with unsignificant loss of information. Thus, the above described model is intended to harmonize national economic decisions with forecasts obtained from industry models in real terms. The conversion procedure is based on the properties of the model of «mutual» problems and information from basic OMMM. The final result is a production-transport cost model within a «traditional» industrial structure.

Keywords

• разделение аспектов
• оптимизационная межотраслевая межрайонная модель
• взаимная задача
• лесной комплекс
• агрегирование
• стоимостная отраслевая модель
• separation of aspects
• inter-district inter-industrial optimization model
• «mutual» task
• the timber industry
• aggregation
• cost the industry model