Improving Ship Fuel Consumption and Carbon Intensity Prediction Accuracy Based on a Long Short-Term Memory Model with Self-Attention Mechanism

Abstract

The prediction of fuel consumption and Carbon Intensity Index (CII) of ships is crucial for optimizing decarbonization strategies in the maritime industry. This study proposes a ship fuel consumption prediction model based on the Long Short-Term Memory with Self-Attention Mechanism (SA-LSTM). The model is applied to a container ship of 2400 TEU to predict its hourly fuel consumption, hourly CII, and annual CII rating. Four different feature sets are selected from these data sources and are used as inputs for SA-LSTM and another ten models. The results demonstrate that the SA-LSTM model outperforms the other models in prediction accuracy. Specifically, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for fuel consumption predictions using the SA-LSTM model is reduced by up to 20% compared to the XGBoost and by up to 12% compared to the LSTM model. Additionally, the SA-LSTM model achieves the highest accuracy in annual CII predictions.

Keywords

• ship carbon intensity prediction
• deep learning
• decarbonization
• self-attention mechanism
• LSTM
• multi-source heterogeneous data