Does the supply response of maize suffer from climate change in Bangladesh? Empirical evidence using ARDL approach

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate and non-climatic parameters on maize yield in Bangladesh from 1980 to 2020. The research used the autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) method to determine the short run and long-run relationship between the variables, including CO2 emissions, average temperature, and average rainfall, overall population, agricultural technology, and energy consumption. By applying the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration (JJC) approach we confirmed the lon-run cointegration between the studied variables. The study found that all climate parameters negatively impacted maize yield in both the short and long run, while non-climatic factors, such as agricultural technology, had a positive impact. In addition, the population had a negative impact on maize yield, and energy consumption had a positive impact over the short run but a negative effect over the long run. The findings of the study recommend that several policy interventions can be implemented to improve maize productivity in Bangladesh. These include promoting the adoption of new agricultural technologies, mitigating climate change, sustainable land use practices, energy efficiency, and policies to support small farmers. These interventions can address the negative effects of climate change and other factors, as well as promote sustainable agriculture practices in the long run.

Keywords

• Maize supply
• Climate change
• ARDL model
• Johansen and juselius cointegration method
• Bangladesh