Building a Model of Long-Term Forecasting of the Natural Gas Production in Ukraine for Managerial Decision-Making

Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics of the natural gas production in Ukraine for 2009–2018, carries out a fractal analysis of the time series of the natural gas production indicators. The mathematical model of the natural gas production in Ukraine is developed taking into view the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol and parts of the territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (with introduction of the correction coefficient). The long-term forecast of the natural gas production for 2019–2027 is accomplished using the Holt’s method – with the purpose of usage for managerial decision-making at all levels of power. The average absolute percentage error was 2,026%, which does not exceed 10%. This indicates a high accuracy of the forecast. The forecast of the natural gas production in Ukraine for 2019-2027, in the presence of the correction coefficient, is made without considering new investments and modern technologies. It is specified that in order to improve the natural gas production in Ukraine in 2019-2027, we need programs to support the development of the natural gas production at the State level; the State guarantees on projects, which envisage the introduction of new types of equipment and new low-waste, resource-saving technological processes used in the production of natural gas. Besides, it is necessary to create favorable investment climate that will attract funds of foreign investors from the world financial market for modernization of the natural gas industry in Ukraine.

Keywords

• fractal analysis
• time series
• trend
• Hurst method
• Holt’s method
• long-term forecasting