Stagnant logistics growth simulation on West African intermodal corridors

Abstract

Despite Africa’s high economic growth rate, its logistics costs remain high, and many infrastructure projects and logistics policies are being implemented. Moreover, in Western Africa, where several economic communities have been established, logistics growth is still unstable due to civil conflicts and political changes. These factors are rapidly changing the logistics situation in Western Africa, and there is a need to identify changes in the competitiveness of countries and seaports that handle cargo to/from landlocked countries. The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyse the time-series changes in the logistics situation in West Africa applying the global logistics intermodal network simulation model to the African continent with different parameters by time points. Scenarios regarding political upheavals in Western Africa are examined to clarify the effect on the cargo flow of landlocked countries. The simulation results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire gets greater access to Burkina Faso if border facilities in neighbouring countries stagnate. Moreover, the absence of civil conflicts may raise the presence of Abidjan Port as a regional transhipment hub more prominent and increase its container throughputs. The findings of this study contribute to quantitatively visualising the impact of the events on the logistics situation in Western Africa, which can help formulate future logistics policies and development strategies.

Keywords

• Western Africa
• Global logistics network simulation
• Intermodal transport
• Multiple time points modelling
• Stagnant growth
• GLINS model