Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles

Abstract

On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.

Keywords

• Infectious disease forecasting
• ensemble forecasting
• outbreak
• disease models
• viruses
• COVID-19