Time-Inhomogeneous Finite Birth Processes with Applications in Epidemic Models

Abstract

We consider the evolution of a finite population constituted by susceptible and infectious individuals and compare several time-inhomogeneous deterministic models with their stochastic counterpart based on finite birth processes. For these processes, we determine the explicit expressions of the transition probabilities and of the first-passage time densities. For time-homogeneous finite birth processes, the behavior of the mean and the variance of the first-passage time density is also analyzed. Moreover, the approximate duration until the entire population is infected is obtained for a large population size.

Keywords

• population growth models
• probability distribution of the number of infections
• duration of the epidemic
• first-passage time density
• asymptotic behaviors