Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index Approach for Drought Assessment in Slovakia—Statistical Evaluation of Different Calculations

Abstract

In the conditions of rising air temperature and changing precipitation regimes in Central Europe and Slovakia over the last two decades, it is necessary to analyse drought, develop high-quality tools for drought detection, and understand its reactions to the emerging drought situation. One of the frequently used meteorological drought indices is the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Several parameters can be modified in different steps of the calculation process of SPEI. In the article, we analyse the influence of selected adjustable parameters on the index results. Our research has shown that the choice of a statistical distribution (Log-logistic, Pearson III, or Generalized Extreme Value) for fitting water balance can affect the feasibility of calculating distribution parameters (and thus the index) from the provided input data, as well as lead to either underestimation or overestimation of the index. The normality test of SPEI can be used as a tool for the detection and elimination of highly skewed indices and cases when the indices were not well determined by the distribution function. This study demonstrated improved results when using the GEV distribution, despite the common use of the Log-logistic distribution. With the Pearson III distribution, unusually high or low SPEI values (|SPEI| > 6) were detected.

Keywords

• standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
• meteorological drought index
• Log-logistic distribution
• Pearson III distribution
• generalized extreme value distribution
• drought intensity