A Hierarchical Model to Predict Time of Flowering of Kiwifruit Using Weather Data and Budbreak Dynamics

Abstract

Accurate prediction of flowering times is essential for efficient orchard management for kiwifruit, facilitating timely pest and disease control and pollination interventions. In this study, we developed a predictive model for flowering time using weather data and observations of budbreak dynamics for the ‘Hayward’ and ‘Zesy002’ kiwifruit. We used historic data of untreated plants collected from 32 previous studies conducted between 2007 and 2022 and analyzed budbreak and flowering timing alongside cumulative heat sum (growing degree days, GDDs), chilling unit (CU) accumulation, and other environmental variables using weather data from the weather stations nearest to the study orchards. We trained/parameterized the model with data from 2007 to 2019, and then evaluated the model’s efficacy using testing data from 2020 to 2022. Regression models identified a hierarchical structure with the accumulation of GDDs at the start of budbreak, one of the key predictors of flowering time. The findings suggest that integrating climatic data with phenological events such as budbreak can enhance the predictability of flowering in kiwifruit vines, offering a valuable tool for kiwifruit orchard management.

Keywords

• plant phenology
• climate change
• budbreak
• flowering
• predictive modeling
• thermal requirements