Inundation Characteristics’ Prediction of Storm Surge under Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios: A Case Study of Taizhou, Zhejiang Province

Abstract

Storm surge is the most serious marine disaster in China, and the inundation characteristics of storm surge are the key indicators of disaster severity. Especially in the context of relative sea level rise (RSLR), it is very important to rapidly and accurately estimate the inundation characteristics of storm surge for the risk assessment and emergency management of storm surge disasters. Taking Taizhou city, Zhejiang Province, as the study area, this paper constructed an RSLR scenario library considering absolute sea level rise, land subsidence and storm surge water increase. The scenario library includes 72 scenarios, consisting of a combination of four absolute sea level rise scenarios, three land subsidence scenarios, three timescales (2030, 2050 and 2100) and two storm surge water increase scenarios. Then, an improved passive inundation method was used to predict and analyze the inundation characteristics of storm surge under each scenario. This improved method combines the advantages of the accurate active inundation method and the rapid passive inundation method, and is suitable for rapid and accurate estimation of the storm surge inundation characteristics, which can meet the needs of a storm surge disaster risk assessment and emergency response. The prediction and analysis results show that a minor RSLR can also cause a large-scale inundation in coastal areas of Taizhou. When the value of RSLR exceeds the critical value (0.6 m), it may significantly increase the expansion of the inundation area of storm surge. At a relative sea level rise of 1.57 m (extreme scenario in 2100), the inland storm surge inundation of low-risk areas may become high-risk areas. Finally, the quantitative measures for preventing storm surge disasters were put forward according to the current situation of the coast in Taizhou. Without considering storm surge and superimposed general surge, the existing 20-year return period standard seawall can effectively protect against storm surge under various scenarios. In the case of maximum water increase, it is expected that effective protection will remain until 2030, but the standard of the seawall defense will need to be improved in 2050 and 2100.

Keywords

• storm surge disasters
• relative sea level rise
• land subsidence
• inundation characteristics’ prediction
• Taizhou city