Epidemiological Characteristics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome and Its Relationship with Meteorological Factors in Guangdong from 2015 to 2021

Abstract

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a severe acute infectious disease and there are still some control deficiencies according to the epidemic report. Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in Guangdong from 2015 to 2021, and explore its impacts by meteorological factors. Methods The HFRS and meteorological data in Guangdong from 2015 to 2021 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the National Meteorological Science Data Center, respectively. HFRS case information includes the region reported, current address, date of onset, date of death, age, sex and occupation. The population information includes the resident population and sex ratio. Meteorological data includes AP, ARH, AT, MaT, MRH, MiT, PR and SD. SPSS 23.0 was used for descriptive statistical analysis and tested to learn the correlation between HFRS cases and meteorological factors with ARIMA. Results The average annual incidence of HFRS in Guangdong from 2015 to 2020 was 0.23/100, 000, showing a fluctuating downward trend. The confirmed cases of HFRS in Guangdong totalled 1 627 as its fatality rate was 0.18%. The ratio of clinical cases vs confirmed cases was 1∶2.36 (690/1 627) , as the number of cases in Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen accounted for 63.24% (1 029/1 627) . The temporal-spatial clusterings featured in Guangzhou clustering (38.3%, of which Guangzhou accounted for 75.6%) and Dongguan clustering (61.7%, of which Dongguan accounted for 27.8%) . The incidence peaks were in January and March to May. The sex ratio (male/female) was 3.11∶1 and these coefficient of variations (CV) were 30% and 41%, respectively, the later suggested a greater chance of susceptibility in females. The 25-50 year-old group accounted for 62.75%, where the statistical differences existed among the yearly age-groups (P=0.031) . The occupations included mainly housework and unemployed, business service, labor and farmer, occupied 70.68%. The results included that HFRS cases were significantly correlated with relative humidity (ARH, MRH; Lag4M) , sunshine duration and precipitation (SD, PR; Lag2M) (P<0.05) . The ARIMA (1, 1, 0) (R2stationary=0.710) predicted the HFRS cases in the first half of 2021, with (61±18) % of the agreement rate between the fitted value and the measured value. Conclusion The HFRS epidemic in Guangdong from 2015 to 2021 showed a fluctuating downward trend; high humidity and precipitation might increase the level of HFRS epidemic in the next seasonal quarter. For the clustered HFRS epidemic areas in both Guangzhou and Dongguan, the current HFRS prevention and control mission is to strengthen field protection to HFRS and improve the laboratory diagnosis rate of clinical HFRS cases.

Keywords

• hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome|epidemiological features|meteorological factors|autoregressive integrated moving average