South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: Exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations.

Abstract

South Africa has an overall homicide rate six times the global average. Males are predominantly the victims and perpetrators, but little is known about the male victims. For the country's first ever study on male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global average and previous estimates for 2009. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, sharp and blunt force) within and between years. 87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge being the most common cause of death. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher for the age group 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest during weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. There is a massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk among South African men which highlights their relative neglect in the country's prevention and policy responses. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability do we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty, inequality and better control alcohol and firearms.