Shuiwen dizhi gongcheng dizhi (Sep 2021)
A study of the risk ranking method of landslides and collapses
Abstract
Geological disasters in China are characterized by multi-point and wide-range distribution, while the manpower and ability of geological disaster risk management and control are relatively limited. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the sequencing work of geological disaster risk, screen out the geological disaster points for priority control and control, and ensure the pertinency and efficiency of the implementation of geological disaster risk management and control countermeasures. The essence of geological hazard risk ranking is to use quantitative risk evaluation to calculate the risk value of each disaster point, and then carry out the ranking work according to the risk value. At present, the quantitative risk assessment model is mostly used in the risk assessment of a single geological disaster point, but is not applied in the risk ranking work of a wide range of geological disasters. Moreover, the model is relatively complex, so it is difficult to popularize and use it. Based on the analysis of the response relationship and law between the collapse-landslide geological disasters and its environmental factors, this paper extracts the main controlling environmental factors and inducing factors of the collapse landslide geological disasters, and establishes the risk evaluation index system of geological disasters together with the vulnerable factors such as population, material and resources. Based on the interaction matrix of rock engineering system (RES) and expert scoring method, the weight of each level of geological hazard risk evaluation index factor is determined, and the geological hazard risk scoring system is constructed. According to the definition of risk assessment, a simple geological hazard risk calculation model which can be quantified quickly is proposed. Taking 98 potential geological hazards in Guizhou province as an example, the model verification and application were carried out by taking 98 potential geological hazards in Guizhou province as examples. The risk ranking results are consistent with the actual risks recognized by the disaster body management agencies, which verify the rationality and effectiveness of the model and greatly improve the ability and efficiency of geological disaster risk management and control.
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