Ecological Indicators (Dec 2023)
Study on the response and prediction of SDGs based on different climate change scenarios: The case of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan
Abstract
Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges facing the world, which will affect the process of sustainable development in all aspects such as economy, society, environment, etc., and the integration of climate change into the sustainable development management strategy will help to realize the process of SDGs indicators. However, there is a lack of quantitative research on the correlation between climate variables and sustainable development, especially from the perspective of climate change. Therefore, the experiment systematically proposes a framework for ecosystem service-based sustainable development assessment in the context of climate change, and tries to explore the response relationship between climate variables and sustainable development goals. The experiment takes the central Yunnan urban agglomeration as the study area, and based on the climate data of CMIP6, adopts the PLUS model and the InVEST model, predicts the spatial distribution of ESs and calculates the indicators of future SDGs, and explores the response of the climate to the indicators of SDGs by using the Spearman's correlation analysis. The experimental results showed that both the overall ESs and SDGs metrics declined under the influence of future climate change. Through the response analysis, among the eight climate indicators, evapotranspiration, dryness, barometric pressure, and temperature showed negative impacts in the study go, while precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation promoted sustainable progress in the study area. However, under the influence of future climate change, the positive indicators may translate into negative impacts. There is a strong correlation between climate change and sustainable development, and the results of this experiment can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development of similar regions in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change in the future.
