Increase in the risk of snakebites incidence due to changes in humidity levels: A time series study in four municipalities of the state of Rondônia

Abstract

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Snakebites represent a serious global public health problem, especially in tropical countries. In Brazil, the incidence of snakebites ranges from 19 to 22 thousand cases per 100000 persons annually. The state of Rondônia, in particular, has had an increasing incidence of snakebites. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study on snakebites was conducted from January 2007 to December 2018. Brazil’s Information System for Notifiable Diseases was queried for all snakebites reported in Porto Velho, Ariquemes, Cacoal, and Vilhena. Data on land surface temperatures during the day and night, precipitation, and humidity were obtained using the Google Earth Engine. A Bayesian time series model was constructed to describe the pattern of snakebites and their relationship with climate data. RESULTS: In total, 6326 snakebites were reported in Rondônia. Accidents were commonly caused by Bothrops sp. (n=2171, 81.80%). Snakebites most frequently occurred in rural areas (n=2271, 85.5%). Men, with a median age of 34 years (n=2101, 79.1%), were the most frequent bitten. Moderate clinical manifestation was the most common outcome of an accident (n=1101, 41.50%). There were clear seasonal patterns with respect to rainfall, humidity, and temperature. Rainfall and land surface temperature during the day or night did not increase the risk of snakebites in any city; however, changes in humidity increased the risk of snakebites in all cities. CONCLUSION: This study identified the population exposed to snakes and the influence of anthropic and climatic factors on the incidence of snakebites. According to climate data, changes in humidity increased the risk of snakebites.

Keywords

• Epidemiology
• Snakebites
• Climatic variables
• Bayesian Modelling