Impact of Climate Change on Heat Wave Risk

Abstract

We study a new risk measure inspired from risk theory with a heat wave risk analysis motivation. We show that this risk measure and its sensitivities can be computed in practice for relevant temperature stochastic processes. This is in particular useful for measuring the potential impact of climate change on heat wave risk. Numerical illustrations are given.

Keywords

• climate change
• risk measure
• heat wave risk
• temperature modeling
• Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process