Comovement between agricultural commodities and stock returns of commodity-dependant sub-saharan Africa countries amidst the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The study analyses the comovement between agricultural commodities (cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, and soybeans) and sub-Saharan African equities (BRVM, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, and Uganda) heavily exposed to shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic spanning from January 2017 to December 2022. Through bivariate and multivariate wavelet analysis, the study identifies the adaptive and asymmetrical nature of the sampled markets both in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The results highlight commodities as the main driving force behind equities, with few exceptions, and reveal these markets' safe-haven and hedge potential during the pandemic and the normal periods, except for the multivariate case. The bivariate findings suggest that global investors can consider investing in agricultural commodities and the sampled equities for enhanced portfolio diversification. By examining the interconnectedness of the sampled market across different timeframes and investment horizons, the study has uncovered significant implications for policy-making, portfolio diversification strategies, and risk management approaches.

Keywords

• Commodities
• Sub-saharan African stock market
• COVID-19
• Portfolio diversification
• Time-frequency domain
• Adaptive market hypothesis