The impact of urban construction land allocation on socioeconomic development under the background of population shrinkage: A case study of the three provinces of Northeast China

Abstract

[Objective] This study aimed to analyze the suitability of existing urban construction land allocation strategies in the context of population decline. By examining the impact of urban construction land allocation on socioeconomic development, it provides a theoretical basis for optimizing construction land allocation in the three provinces of Northeast China. [Methods] This study focused on the prefecture-level cities in Northeast China and took 2010—2020 as the research period. Based on the analysis of the current situation of population shrinkage and construction land allocation, we used the Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data models to explore the impact of the scale and structure of construction land on socioeconomic development. Additionally, we identified the challenges and optimization strategies for urban construction land development under the background of population shrinkage. [Results] (1) Under the background of population shrinkage, the planned expansion of urban construction land has a inhibitory effect on socioeconomic growth, and the “land input-oriented development” model is facing ineffectiveness; (2) The input of residential land and public management and service land has a inhibitory effect on socioeconomic growth, the input of industrial land has a promoting effect but with decreasing marginal benefits. The suitability of traditional land allocation strategies emphasizing the supply of these three types of land has decreased. [Conclusion] Shrinking cities face the risks of “over-allocation” and “misallocation” of urban construction land. To address this, it is essential to control the scale of construction land, harmonize the relationship between population and construction land scale, and actively adjust the land use structure and optimize resource allocation. These measures will improve the efficiency of construction land and promote socioeconomic development.

Keywords

• shrinking cities|land scale|land structure|resource allocation|panel data model|the three provinces of northeast china