Is Healthcare Employment Resilient and “Recession Proof”?

Abstract

Conventional wisdom often holds that the healthcare sector fares better than other sectors during economic downturns. However, little research has examined the relationship between local economic conditions and healthcare employment. Understanding how the healthcare sector responds to economic conditions is important for policymakers seeking to ensure an adequate supply of healthcare workers, as well as for those directing displaced workers into new jobs. We examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions on both the healthcare labor market and the pipeline of healthcare workers receiving healthcare degrees during 2005–2017 (the pre-COVID era). Our results indicate that the healthcare sector is stable across past business cycles. If anything, when areas experience more severe local economic downturns, healthcare employment increases. Much remains unknown about how the healthcare sector will fare during the current recession. Our study represents an important backdrop as policymakers consider ways to sustain the healthcare sector during current economic and public health turbulence.