Effects of multiple transmission pathways on Zika dynamics

Abstract

Although the Zika virus is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, it can also be sexually and vertically transmitted within both populations. In this study, we develop a new mathematical model of the Zika virus which incorporates sexual transmission in humans and mosquitos, vertical transmission in mosquitos, and mosquito to human transmission through bites. Analysis of this deterministic model shows that the secondary transmission routes of Zika increase the basic reproductive number (R0) of the virus by 5%, shift the peak time of an outbreak to occur 10% sooner, increase the initial growth of an epidemic, and have important consequences for control strategies and estimates of R0. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis show that the basic reproductive number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and transmission probability parameters and reveal that the dynamics of juvenile mosquito stages greatly impact the peak time of an outbreak. These discoveries deepen our understanding of the complex transmission routes of ZIKV and the consequences that they may hold for public health officials. Keywords: Zika virus, Secondary transmission pathways, Epidemic growth rate, Control strategies, Basic reproductive number estimate