Prediction of a Ship’s Operational Parameters Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Abstract

The maritime industry is one of the most competitive industries today. However, there is a tendency for the profit margins of shipping companies to reduce due to an increase in operational costs, and it does not seem that this trend will change in the near future. The most important reason for the increase in operating costs relates to the increase in fuel prices. To compensate for the increase in operating costs, shipping companies can either renew their fleet or try to make use of new technologies to optimize the performance of their existing one. The software structure in the maritime industry has changed and is now leaning towards the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, more specifically, Machine Learning (ML) for calculating its operational scenarios as a way to compensate the reduction of profit. While AI is a technology for creating intelligent systems that can simulate human intelligence, ML is a subfield of AI, which enables machines to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. ML has been used in other industries for increasing both availability and profitability, and it seems that there is also great potential for the maritime industry. In this paper the authors compares the performance of multiple regression algorithms like Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Tree Regressor (TRs), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Linear Regression, and AdaBoost, in predicting the output power of the Main Engines (M/E) of an ocean going vessel. These regression algorithms are selected because they are commonly used and are well supported by the main software developers in the area of ML. For this scope, measured values that are collected from the onboard Automated Data Logging & Monitoring (ADLM) system of the vessel for a period of six months have been used. The study shows that ML, with the proper processing of the measured parameters based on fundamental knowledge of naval architecture, can achieve remarkable prediction results. With the use of the proposed method there was a vast reduction in both the computational power needed for calculations, and the maximum absolute error value of prediction.

Keywords

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Fuel Oil Consumption (FOC)
• prediction
• regression algorithms
• data mining
• Machine Learning (ML)