A Novel Predictive Model in Recognizing Severe COVID-19 and Multiorgan Injuries: Platelet-to-CRP Ratio

Abstract

Aims. In view of the emerging virus variations and pandemic worldwide, it is urgent to explore effective models predicting disease severity. Methods. We aimed to investigate whether platelet-to-CRP ratio (PC ratio) could predict the severity of COVID-19 and multi-organ injuries. Patients who complained of pulmonary or gastrointestinal symptoms were enrolled after confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection via qRT-PCR. Those who complained of gastrointestinal symptoms were defined as having initial gastrointestinal involvement. Chest computed tomography (CT) was then performed to classify the patients into mild, moderate, and severe pneumonia groups according to the interim management guideline. qRT-PCR was also performed on stool to discern those discharging virus through the gastrointestinal tract. Logistic regression models were applied to analyze the association between PC ratio and severity of pneumonia, risk of initial gastrointestinal involvement, and multi-organ injuries. Results. When compared to the bottom tertile of PC ratio, the adjusted odds ratio was −0.51, p<0.001 and −0.53, p<0.001 in moderate and severe pneumonia, respectively. Furthermore, the adjusted odds ratio for initial gastrointestinal involvement was 0.18 (82% lower) when compared to the bottom tertile of PC ratio, p=0.005. The area under ROC on moderate-to-severe pneumonia and initial gastrointestinal involvement was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.742, 0.930, p<0.001) and 0.721 (95% CI: 0.604, 0.839, p=0.002), respectively. The upper tertiles of PC ratio showed lower levels of aspartate aminotransferase (p=0.016) and lactic dehydrogenase (p<0.001). Conclusions. Platelet-to-CRP ratio could act as an effective model in recognizing severe COVID-19 and multi-organ injuries.