Comparative Analysis of Grass Pollen Dynamics in Urban and Rural Ireland: Identifying Key Sources and Optimizing Prediction Models

Abstract

The Poaceae family, one of the most diverse and widespread angiosperms, is prevalent in various natural and urban environments and is a major cause of allergies, affecting over 20% of the population in Europe, specifically in Ireland. With extensive grasslands, Ireland supports numerous grass species, though pollen release varies due to the family’s complexity. The Hirst spore-trap is commonly used to sample airborne pollen, but the area of influence is debated and may differ by pollen type. This study compares grass pollen seasons between rural Carlow and urban Dublin, aiming to create forecast models for airborne pollen and identify key grass areas influencing the main pollen season (MPS). Two Hirst samplers were analyzed, using data up to 2020, and two threshold models (based on Swedish and Danish studies) were tested to find the best fit for Ireland. Airmass footprints were calculated using Hysplit and combined with grassland data to pinpoint major pollen sources. The results showed that Carlow had higher pollen concentrations but shorter seasons than Dublin. The Swedish threshold method was the most accurate for Ireland, with the Wicklow Mountains identified as a significant pollen source. These findings improve the understanding of pollen dynamics and support better public health and allergy management.

Keywords

• grass pollen
• modelling
• transport