Trends and correlates of girl-child marriage in 11 West African countries: evidence from recent Demographic and Health Surveys [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Abstract

Background: West Africa historically has a high prevalence of girl-child marriage and requires substantial reduction to meet the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of ending child marriage by 2030, but current data on progress is sparce. We aimed to determine the trend in child marriage in West Africa and assess the influence of selected socio-demographic factors. Methods: We analysed data on women aged 18-24 years from the two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (conducted between 2006 and 2014) for 11 West African countries to determine the prevalence and trend of girl-child marriage. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between girl-child marriage and selected socio-demographic factors. Results: The prevalence of child marriage in West Africa is 41.5%. An overall decrease of 4.6% (annual rate of 0.01%) was recorded over a seven-year inter-survey period. Three countries (Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Niger) recorded increased prevalence while the rate was unchanged in Burkina Faso, and the other six countries had reduced prevalence between the last two surveys. Sierra Leone recorded the highest decrease in prevalence (22%) and an annual reduction rate of 0.04%; Cote d’Ivore had the highest increase (65.3%). In virtually all countries, rural residence, low education, poor household economic status and non-Christian religious affiliation were significantly associated with higher odds of girl-child marriage. Conclusions: The prevalence of girl-child marriage remains high in West Africa and the trend shows very slow progress. While substantial inter-country variations exist in overall rate and trend of child marriage, the rate of progress is inadequate across all countries.