Assessing Catchment Resilience Using Entropy Associated with Mean Annual Runoff for the Upper Vaal Catchment in South Africa

Abstract

The importance of the mean annual runoff (MAR)-hydrological variable is paramount for catchment planning, development and management. MAR depicts the amount of uncertainty or chaos (implicitly information content) of the catchment. The uncertainty associated with MAR of quaternary catchments (QCs) in the Upper Vaal catchment of South Africa has been quantified through Shannon entropy. As a result of chaos over a period of time, the hydrological catchment behavior/response in terms of MAR could be characterized by its resilience. Uncertainty (chaos) in QCs was used as a surrogate measure of catchment resilience. MAR data on surface water resources (WR) of South Africa of 1990 (i.e., WR90), 2005 (WR2005) and 2012 (W2012) were used in this study. A linear zoning for catchment resilience in terms of water resources sustainability was defined. Regression models (with high correlation) between the relative changes/variations in MAR data sets and relative changes in entropy were established, for WR2005 and WR2012. These models were compared with similar relationships for WR90 and WR2005, previously reported. The MAR pseudo-elasticity of the uncertainty associated with MAR was derived from regression models to characterize the resilience state of QCs. The MAR pseudo-elasticity values were relatively small to have an acceptable level of catchment resilience in the Upper Vaal catchment. Within the resilience zone, it was also shown that the effect of mean annual evaporation (MAE) was negatively significant on MAR pseudo-elasticity, compared to the effect of mean annual precipitation (MAP), which was positively insignificant.

Keywords

• entropy
• resilience
• pseudo-elasticity
• mean annual runoff
• water resources
• catchment