Modeling the Process of Assessing and Analyzing Regional Export Potential

Abstract

The publication presents the results of an analysis of existing approaches to managing international trade at the regional level as well as to assessing, analyzing, forecasting and optimizing regional export indicators. The study of existing approaches to quantitative assessment of export potential both in Ukraine and in other countries with a small open economy revealed limited possibilities for an effective use of the existing techniques at the level of Ukrainian regions and their territorial units. The analysis of export indicators and export efficiency of regions of Western Ukraine for the period 2008–2018 allowed for identifying the main patterns in the behavior of relevant indicators for the studied regions. The scientific novelty of the results obtained is the improvement and development of existing approaches to assessing and analyzing international trade of the region. The present paper proposes and implements an approach to assessing effectiveness of export activity using the existing statistical base and an approach to assessing potential of a region’s international trade with the application of the weighted Euclidean distance. The prospective development of the chosen research area with the employment of appropriate economic and mathematical tools will allow a qualitatively new approach to solving the problem of increasing efficiency of realization of a region’s international trade potential.

Keywords

• export potential
• international trade
• model
• analysis
• euclidean distance