Impact of neuroprotection on incidence of Alzheimer's disease.

Abstract

Converging evidence suggests that high levels of education and intellectual activity increase the cognitive reserve and reduce the risk of dementia. However, little is known about the impact that different neuroprotective strategies may have on the incidence of Alzheimer's disease. Using a simple mathematical regression model, it is shown here that age-specific counts of basic cognitive units (surrogate of neurons or synapses) in the normal population can be estimated from Alzheimer's incidence rates. Hence, the model can be used to test the effect of neuroprotection on Alzheimer's incidence. It was found that the number of basic cognitive units decreases with age, but levels off in older people. There were no gender differences after correcting for survival. The model shows that even modest neuroprotective effects on basic cognitive units can lead to dramatic reductions in the number of Alzheimer's cases. Most remarkably, a 5% increase in the cognitive reserve would prevent one third of Alzheimer's cases. These results suggest that public health policies aimed at increasing the cognitive reserve in the general population (e.g., implementing higher levels of education) are likely the most effective strategy for preventing Alzheimer's disease.