Trend analysis and change-point detection of temperature and rainfall in southern Peruvian Amazon and its relation to deforestation

Abstract

The study aimed to identify the change points, tendencies, and trends in climatic parameters (precipitation and temperatures) and to investigate their relationship with deforestation in the southeastern Peruvian Amazon (Tambopata). Rainfall and temperature data for the Puerto Maldonado station from 1970 to 2023 was used. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation as well as temperature (maximum, minimum, and mean) were analyzed for possible trends using nonparametric Mann-Kendal statistic test, while the Pettitt test was employed to detect the abrupt change point in time series. The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to identify the relationship between deforestation and climate parameters. The results revealed a rise in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures. Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope revealed significant trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures in the study period. However, in contrast to the temperature variation trend, the monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation did not present a significant trend. Significant positive correlations were obtained between deforestation and temperatures but its association with precipitation was not significant.

Keywords

• Change point
• climate change
• climate variability
• deforestation
• Tambopata
• Madre de Dios