Evaluation of soft-computing techniques for pan evaporation estimation

Abstract

Estimation of pan evaporation (Epan) can be useful in judicious irrigation scheduling for enhancing agricultural water productivity. The aim of present study was to assess the efficacy of state-of-the-art LSTM and ANN for daily Epan estimation using meteorological data. Besides this, the effect of static time-series (Julian date) as additional input variable was investigated on performance of soft-computing techniques. For this purpose,the models were trained, tested and validated with eight meteorological variables of 37 years by using preceding 1-, 3- and 5- days’ information. Data were partitioned into three groups as training (60%), testing (20%), and validation (20%) components. It was observed that the models performed well (best) with preceding 5-days meteorological information followed by 3-days and 1-day. However, all LSTMs simulated peak value of Epan was more accurate as compared to lower values. Meteorological data with julian date improved the performance of LSTMs (0.75<NSE 1; PBias< 10; KGE 0.75). The ANN trained using only meteorological data (preceding 5-days information) had better performance error statistics among all other ANNs and LSTMs with minimum MAE (0.68 to 0.86), RMSE (0.93 to 1.22), PBias (-0.73 to 2.44) and maximum NSE (0.83 to 0.84) and KGE (0.89 to 0.92). Overall, it was inferred that the forecasting of meteorological parameters using a few days preceding information along with Julian date as the time series variables resulted in better estimation of Epan for the study region.

Keywords

• Evaporation
• Prediction
• Neural network
• Irrigation scheduling
• LSTM network