Analysis of a fractional order epidemiological model for tuberculosis transmission with vaccination and reinfection

Abstract

Abstract This study has been carried out using a novel mathematical model on the dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) transmission considering vaccination, endogenous re-activation of the dormant infection, and exogenous re-infection. We can comprehend the behavior of TB under the influence of vaccination from this article. We compute the basic reproduction number ( $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$ R 0 ) as well as the vaccination reproduction number ( $${\mathcal {R}}_v$$ R v ) using the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable, and the fractional order system is Ulam–Hyers type stable. We perform numerical simulation of our model using the Adams-Bashforth 3-step method to verify the theoretical results and to show the model outputs graphically. By performing data fitting, we observe that our formulated model produces results that closely match real-world data. Our findings indicate that vaccinating a limited segment of the population can effectively eradicate the disease. The numerical simulations also show that vaccination can reduce the number of susceptible and infectious individuals in the population. Moreover, the graphical representations illustrate that the number of infected individuals rises due to both exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation.

Keywords

• Caputo–Fabrizio fractional order
• Vaccination reproduction number
• Exogenous reinfection
• Ulam–Hyers stability
• Endogenous reactivation