A simple approach to estimate the instantaneous case fatality ratio: Using the publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data in Canada as an example

Abstract

The case fatality ratio (CFR) is one of the key measurements to evaluate the clinical severity of infectious diseases. The CFR may vary due to change in factors that affect the mortality risk. In this study, we developed a simple likelihood-based framework to estimate the instantaneous CFR of infectious diseases. We used the publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data in Canada for demonstration. We estimated the mean fatality ratio of reported COVID-19 cases (rCFR) in Canada was estimated at 6.9% (95%CI: 4.5–10.6). We emphasize the extensive implementation of the constructed instantaneous CFR that is to identify the key determinants affecting the mortality risk.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Case fatality ratio
• Epidemic
• Modelling
• Canada